As we step into November, the Tampa Bay real estate market remains dynamic, with shifting buyer and seller behaviors driven by economic conditions, seasonal factors, and Tampa’s steady growth as a desirable market. Here's a detailed analysis of key trends impacting buyers and sellers this month. 1. Home Prices and Appreciation Trends In November, home prices in the greater Tampa area have seen moderate appreciation. According to recent data, median home prices remain elevated compared to last year, though the rapid price growth seen in previous years has slowed. In Tampa and surrounding areas, homes continue to sell at higher-than-national-average prices, a trend attributed to ongoing demand fueled by Tampa’s growing population and its reputation as an affordable alternative to pricier metros like Miami and Orlando. While price increases have decelerated compared to the past two years, it’s worth noting that Tampa remains attractive to out-of-state buyers from high-cost regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. This influx supports the market’s resilience, as out-of-state buyers often bring higher budgets and are willing to pay premium prices for Tampa properties. 2. Inventory Levels November has seen continued low inventory across the greater Tampa area, a common trend in many secondary markets. Limited housing supply persists as a challenge, partially due to a "lock-in" effect where current homeowners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell in today’s higher interest rate environment. Consequently, inventory levels are tight, keeping competition among buyers high, especially for move-in-ready homes. For sellers, this shortage of homes on the market creates a favorable environment, particularly for those with well-maintained properties in desirable neighborhoods. Homes in prime areas, such as South Tampa and the Westshore District, continue to attract considerable interest, and properties often receive multiple offers if they are appropriately priced. 3. Mortgage Rates Impacting Buyer Demand Mortgage rates are currently around 7-8%, a stark increase from recent years. These elevated rates have impacted affordability and buyer sentiment, especially among first-time buyers. However, despite higher rates, demand remains robust in Tampa due to its strong job market, quality of life, and relatively affordable housing options compared to other large cities. Many buyers are still active, particularly in the mid-to-upper price ranges, where buyers may have more cash on hand or are less affected by mortgage rate hikes. Additionally, some lenders are offering rate buydowns or creative financing solutions to help make homeownership more accessible. As we look ahead, industry experts speculate rates may stabilize or even decrease in 2024, potentially sparking renewed interest among rate-sensitive buyers. 4. Seasonal Trends and Holiday Market Conditions Historically, November is a slower month for real estate due to the holiday season, as buyers and sellers often pause activity in preparation for year-end. However, this year’s seasonality could be less pronounced in Tampa due to sustained demand and limited inventory. While some buyers may take a break during the holidays, motivated buyers remain active, hoping to secure deals and close before the end of the year. This can be a good time for sellers to list properties, as holiday listings face less competition, helping homes to stand out in the market. Additionally, snowbirds and retirees looking to move to Florida for the winter months also contribute to buyer demand during this season. The influx of seasonal residents and retirees ensures that Tampa’s market activity stays relatively steady compared to other regions. 5. Rental Market and Investment Opportunities The rental market in Tampa has remained strong, with rental rates steadily increasing in response to high demand. Rental properties, particularly in areas with proximity to the coast, urban amenities, and job centers, are seeing high occupancy rates. Investors continue to view Tampa as a desirable market, with returns on rental properties remaining attractive compared to other parts of Florida. Given the current interest rates, more prospective buyers are choosing to rent, pushing up rental demand. This trend creates opportunities for both local and out-of-state investors, as Tampa’s population growth supports a stable renter pool. Investors interested in multi-family properties or vacation rentals are finding good prospects in popular areas like downtown Tampa, Seminole Heights, and the Channel District. Looking Ahead: 2025 Market Projections As we approach 2025, the Tampa Bay real estate market is projected to experience moderate but steady growth, shaped by a blend of economic factors and demographic trends. Mortgage Rates Stabilization or Potential DeclineWhile rates have remained high in 2024, some economists predict they may ease in 2025, possibly encouraging a new wave of buyers. Lower rates could expand purchasing power and drive demand, especially among buyers who postponed purchasing during higher-rate periods. Continued Demand from Out-of-State BuyersTampa’s appeal to buyers from high-cost regions like the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast is expected to remain strong. Tampa offers a relatively affordable and high-quality lifestyle compared to major metros, which is likely to keep the city attractive to remote workers, retirees, and younger families relocating to Florida. Inventory Constraints PersistInventory challenges are expected to continue, especially with many current homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, making them less likely to sell. New construction may help alleviate some of the pressure, but the housing shortage may persist, creating favorable conditions for sellers while maintaining price stability. Growth in Rental Market and Investment OpportunitiesWith Tampa’s population projected to grow, rental demand will likely stay strong, making it a favorable environment for investors. Rising rental rates and high occupancy continue to make Tampa attractive for those looking to invest in multi-family and vacation rentals, particularly in areas close to downtown and waterfronts. Resilience in Home Values and Moderate Price AppreciationWhile national price appreciation may slow, Tampa’s value retention is projected to remain stable due to high demand and limited inventory. Experts anticipate moderate home price increases in 2025, especially in prime neighborhoods, allowing sellers to still achieve strong returns. Conclusion As we look toward 2025, the Tampa Bay real estate market continues to present both challenges and opportunities. Sellers are likely to benefit from ongoing low inventory and steady demand, while buyers face some affordability hurdles from potentially high borrowing costs. However, Tampa’s strong appeal, high quality of life, and value retention offer compelling reasons for buyers to stay engaged in the market. Whether you’re considering selling, buying, or investing in 2025, staying informed on these trends can help you make strategic decisions that align with your goals. If you’re interested in discussing your options or crafting a plan for the year ahead, let’s connect to create a strategy that works best for your real estate goals!

There are a number of reasons you may be thinking about selling your house. And as you weigh your options, you may find you’re unsure how you’re going to deal with one thing about today’s housing market – and that’s affordability. If that’s your biggest concern, understanding how much equity you have in your house could help make your decision that much easier. Here are two key factors that have a big impact on your equity. How Long You’ve Been in Your Home First up is homeowner tenure. That’s how long homeowners live in a house, on average, before selling or choosing to move. From 1985 to 2009, the average length of time homeowners stayed put was roughly six years.  But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), that number has been climbing. Now, the average tenure is 10 years (see graph below): Here’s why that’s such a big deal. You gain equity as you pay down your home loan and as home prices climb. And when you combine all of your mortgage payments with how much prices have gone up over the span of 10 years, that adds up. So, if you’ve lived in your house for a while now, you may be sitting on a pile of equity. How Home Prices Appreciate over Time To help show how much the price appreciation piece adds up, take a look at this data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) (see graph below):  Here’s what this means for you. While home prices vary by area, the typical homeowner who’s been in their house for five years saw it increase in value by nearly 60%. And the average homeowner who’s owned their home for 30 years saw it more than triple in value in that time. Whether you’re looking to downsize, relocate to a dream destination, or move so you can live closer to friends or loved ones, your equity can be a game changer. Bottom Line Connect with a local real estate agent if you want to find out how much equity you’ve built up over the years and how you can use it to buy your next home.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know. What Is a Balanced Market? A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed? After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen. The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today: For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says: “The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.” What This Means for You and Your Move Here’s how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you’ll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains: “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.” The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes: Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options. Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from. Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward. How a Real Estate Agent Can Help But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it. Bottom Line The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent.

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move. Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision. Home Sales In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below): Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary. Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year. In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below): Home Prices You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes: “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.” Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances. The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below): The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline. Mortgage Rates And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below): And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power. What This Means for You What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.” For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans. Bottom Line While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, reach out to a local real estate agent.